Fourth and One: An Unbeaten Shall Fall

So in my absence last weekend, Sean took over my duties and previewed the games, and since he didn’t want to jack my column idea, he decided to do a 4th and 1 style column with the four best games of the week and his one upset pick. But you know what, I liked the idea so much I didn’t mind taking it over as my own, and since I am the sage football writer, there are absolutely no qualms about it. The reason I decided to do it was simple: we are now 7 weeks into the season and there simply aren’t 9 games worth previewing for my “The Whole 9 Yards” column (not to mention it takes a hell of a lot longer to do than 5 games). This year is unlike any other that I can remember. We have 4 undefeated teams and I’m pretty sure that’s more at this point in the season than there ever has been. But then we have about 5 or 6 0r 8 (who really knows) really, really crappy teams. You would think Rich Kotite, Ray Handley, and Ray Rhodes came out of retirement to coach again. The teams are really that bad. So the slate of competitive games every week has taken a major hit. So much for parity in the greatest sport ever created. So, that being the case, I decided to steal Sean’s idea because it just seems like the more logical thing to do and then you, the reader, don’t have to sift through my drawn out posts because I cant seem to find the ability to cut it short and shut up already (and I hate to admit that Sean had a better idea than my lame column idea). And now, without further adieu, I shall crack a fresh Natural Light (don’t hate, it might be cheap, but it is dee-licious), turn up the Zeppelin and let you into the magical mind of a genius.

"Are you gonna bark all day little doggie, or give me the damn 4th and 1 column? ....That's what I thought."

First: Minnesota at Pittsburgh. This is by far the game of the week and it’s not even close. It’s a shame really that this game will be played at one o’clock ET. The undefeated Vikings will saunter into Heinz Field to take on the defending Super Bowl champions in a game that everyone expects to come down to the wire. I however, am in the minority. I don’t think this game will be as close as people think. The Vikings have been extremely lucky in a few of their games this year, winning on a miracle throw to beat the 49ers and needing a Steven Hauschka missed FG to pull off the win last week against Baltimore. The bad part is both of those games were at home. Yes, Brett Favre has played well, but lets not get too ahead of ourselves here. For the past 4 years his numbers have decreased dramatically in the second half of the season. I know we’re not there yet, but he hasn’t played a defense the likes of the Steelers all year and with Troy Polamalu roaming the backfield again, he could be due to make a few mistakes. The Viking defense has also been extremely suspect of late and the Steelers offense is on a roll. Big Ben is on pace for a 5,000 yard season which is pretty remarkable, and this team has become a pass first team that relies on the pass to set up the run now instead of the other way around. The Viking secondary has been awful and with Antoine Winfield nursing an injured toe, they could be in real trouble here. Look for the Steelers to defend their home turf in rousing fashion. Steelers 34-Vikings 17.

Second: Chicago at Cincinnati. The Bengals have shocked a lot of people in running out to a 4-2 start and beating everyone in their division to lead the rugged AFC North by half a game. I am actually not surprised. Their defense is better than people think (I feel like I write that every week, oh well) and with a healthy Carson Palmer they are capable of beating anyone on a given week. And with Cedric Benson keeping away from boating booze cruises and freed from his dungeon in Chicago, he is suddenly one of the better running backs in the NFL, running with power and conviction. So instead of last year’s version of the Bengals, they don’t have to throw the ball 50 times because they’re down (it also helps not having to rely on Harvard’s Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of the studly Palmer). The Bears on the other hand, seem to be one of the most overhyped teams in the league (as previously written). Everyone loves Jay Cutler and believes that he will one day lead the Bears to the promised land. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. Has anyone seen this team’s red zone offense? It is horrific. They failed to convert three times last week inside the 5 yard line. Doing that every week won’t beat the Chiefs, let alone the resurgent Bengals. Not to mention that Matt Forte seems to have fallen off a cliff and can’t run it in from the 1, let alone gain yards between the 20’s. Jay Cutler may not be turning the ball over at last year’s rate, but he has a knack for turning it over in the red zone this year. Performance in the red zone will be crucial in this game and since the Bears can’t get it done, they will be clipped by the Bengals, even without pass rush force Antwan Odom, in a close one. Bengals 24-Bears 21.

Benson will be a beast and beat the Bears team that shunned him.

Third: Atlanta at Dallas. This is a very intriguing game for many reasons. The Falcons are no doubt the better team, but playing in Dallas is always tough and the Cowboys have been playing subpar as of late. Tony Romo could be the most overrated player in the league, but he has the capability to have a big game at any moment. With CB Brian Williams going down for the year with an ACL tear, Brent Grimes will be forced to start and the Falcons cannot be thrilled about their prospects with him in their secondary. The Falcons have a great offense, but their defense has overachieved and are due for a letdown. They were given some gifts in the red zone last week that helped them win a game they should have lost. The Cowboys should focus on getting Marion Barber and Tashard Choice the ball as much as possible because the Falcons are not a great run stuffing team and if Felix Jones returns this week, all the better for the Cowboys. So as long as Jason Garrett doesn’t pull an Andy Reid and outsmart himself, the Cowboys should run the ball to control the clock and then take a few shots downfield to Roy Williams and Miles Austin when they aren’t working the middle to Jason Witten. So while I believe the Falcons are the better team, the Cowboys are almost in a must win situation ands with their backs against the wall will find a way to pull it off. Cowboys 27-Falcons 20.

Fourth: Arizona at New York Giants. I kind of feel bad for Kurt Warner and the Cardinals this week. While they embarrassed the Seahawks last week, the Giants got embarrassed by the Saints. Not exactly the perfect time to play an angry defense loaded with playmakers on the defensive front. Yes the Giants are hurting in their secondary and Warner can fling it with the best of them. But Anquan Boldin is banged up and may not play and does anyone remember when the Giants went into Arizona last year and destroyed the Cardinals. Well, I do and the Giants are better this year than they were then. Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan admitted that he didn’t blitz Brees nearly enough (actually never) last week and he will not make that same mistake again. So those of you at home send your condolences to Warner now, because if Sheridan keeps his word and unleashes Tuck, Umenyiora, Kiwanuka and company on the Cardinals offense at full force, it could be a long night for the Cardinals offense. The G-Men’s defense was drubbed last week and feels like they have something to prove. Not to mention that the Giants ca score with Cardinals offense if forced to, so even if the Giants get involved in a shootout they can keep up. But don’t expect it to get to that point. I’m not predicting Eli getting any time off like he has in previous weeks, but the Giants will win convincingly. Giants 34-Cardinals 20.

Cheer up Superfan, the G-Men will swarm Warner this week and kncok the Cards off.

And 1: Miami over New Orleans. I almost went with the Redskins here to pull it off on the big Monday night stage, but with a guy calling the plays who’s been there for a week, I couldn’t do it. This game though has all the makings of an upset. The Saints are coming off a huge win at the Superdome over a Giants team many thought were the best in the NFC. The Dolphins are hot right now and their running game seems almost unstoppable. This is the perfect letdown week for a Saints team sitting on Cloud 9, especially since they have the Falcons waiting for them after this game in a big Monday night showdown. This is a trap game, except the Dolphins aren’t crappy enough the qualify as a trap team. Drew Brees is great right now, but he has disappeared in a few games this year and I think it will happen here. I don’t know why, because the Dolphin corners are both rookies, but I feel like they’ll find a way to get some pressure on him (I don’t know, maybe blitz a little, something the Giants seemed afraid to do) and force a turnover or two. As long as the Dolphins get Ronnie and Ricky going, they will be tough to handle and will keep the ball out of Brees’ hands as long as possible and I don’t see a recreation of the Monday night affair where they kept the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands and yet still managed to lose. But sorry Brees lovers, he’s not Manning and this time the ‘Fins pull it off. Dolphins 23-Saints 20.