Fourth and Goal: Momentum’s Ultimate Value

This is the week where we will see whether momentum rears its ugly head or if resting your players to get them healthy for a playoff run is truly worth it. The teams coming off of wins all played exceptionally well last week, except of course for ‘Zona’s defense, and will be carrying that momentum into foreign stadiums. The teams that should be most concerned with their lack of momentum are both #1 seeds, as Indianapolis decided to shut it down two weeks before the end of the season even though they were on the verge of becoming only the second team to ever finish the 16-game regular season undefeated. The Saints didn’t take that route and instead gave everything they had to try and finish undefeated, only to be stunned by the Cowboys at home and then suffered an inexplicable loss to the Buccaneers in the Superdome before completely giving up on their final game and not even attempting to play many of their key players. The Colts and Saints both had some injured players that needed the rest and were lucky enough to be in a situation where they could accommodate them, but this week will surely be a testament as to which strategy works best. Now let’s delve into the matchups to see who will meet in next week’s conference championships. Keep in mind that once again, just like the wild card round, two underdogs or road teams usually advance to the final four so, unlike last week, I will try to base my picks on that statistic. 

Darren Sharper will have to get back to playing center field, and less cover 2, if he is going to have any chance of tamping Warner's fire.

First: Arizona at New Orleans. The Cardinals offense is blazing right now after quarterback Kurt Warner put in one of the greatest postseason performances in history last week to nip the Packers in overtime. But they’ll once again be facing a potent offense and it will be up to their defense to actually make a few stops if they have any hope of advancing to play another game this year. Last week’s performance was actually atypical of the Cardinals defense, as they have been much improved this season. But Drew Brees is extremely efficient and accurate and if given just a few seconds in the pocket, can dismantle an opposing defense. He will also have the advantage of playing before a raucous home crowd that hasn’t seen their Saints be this good since, well, ever. The Superdome also provides one of the best home-field advantages in the sport, or at least is used to. That was before the Cowboys came in and crushed the Saints in front of their own fans and then, even more embarrassing, they blew a 17-point lead under the dome to the Buccaneers. The Cowboys loss looks understandable right now (even though it seems to have taken the wind out of their sails), considering how good the Cowboys have been of late. But the Bucs loss would worry me if I were a Saints fan. The Bucs are terrible and the Saints were actually trying to win the game and still were unable to put away Josh Freeman and the Bucs anemic offense or, even worse, were unable to ring up more than 17 points on an overmatched Bucs defense. It is true that their secondary has been a little banged up, but the Bucs pose no real aerial threat so regardless of injuries that loss is ridiculously bad and put a black mark on the Saints season, as well as diminished their home-field. But I wouldn’t expect that game to be on the fans minds once this game kicks off and they’ll be just as rowdy as ever. The only problem is that the Cardinals are playing better ball right now and they could be taken out of the game very quickly. The Saints have struggled all season to stop the run and Beanie Wells is getting hot at the right time. I know everyone expects this game to be a shootout, but I expect much less scoring than last week and Wells to be a focal point and the key to driving the Cardinals down the field and eating the clock up to keep Brees and his deep stable of receivers on the sideline. I know Warner is one of the best postseason quarterbacks in history, but if he has to get in another one of those battles like last week, I’m not sure he can hold up. So expect the Cardinals to ride Wells, and a bit of Tim Hightower, and to squeak by the favored Saints. Cardinals-29 Saints-24.  

Expect Reggie Wayne to be busting a few moves, and ankles, in the end zone come Saturday night.

Second: Baltimore at Indianapolis. A lot of people have recently come out of the woodwork picking the Ravens in this game and, even though the colts have the league’s best record, it’s understandable. The Colts are 0-4 in the postseason when they’ve had a bye and they have been rightfully criticized for tanking the last two games of the season even with the opportunity to go undefeated clearly in the sights. The Ravens are also a good running team and thrashed the Patriots last week and the Colts aren’t exactly a stellar run-stuffing unit. But the advantages for the Ravens end there. I am definitely not on the Ravens bandwagon for this game (I wouldn’t be surprised if they won however) and here’s why. The advantage at quarterback is extremely lopsided. Joe Flacco threw 10 passes last week and even with the reduced workload only completed four of them. Manning could complete 10 passes on one drive. I like Flacco and think he has a very bright future in this league, but he simply doesn’t have the receivers around him to get into an aerial assault with Manning. The Ravens secondary is thinner than Kate Moss right now too. I know the Ravens played the Colts tough in their first meeting this year, but since then they have lost a few more members of their secondary and aren’t equipped on the back end to deal with his array of weapons. Look for Reggie Wayne to break loose for at least one long ball and he should finish the day with at least seven grabs for over 100 yards and a score or two. The Ravens were also successful in the first meeting at containing Dallas Clark who caught only one pass in that game, albeit for a touchdown. He is quite possibly the preeminent player at his position and I don’t expect that to happen again. That is where the Colts will pose problems for the Ravens. They have a guy one every level so the Ravens can’t key on one area. Manning can hit Wayne or Pierre Garcon deep, Clark or Collie over the middle, or dump it off to Joseph Addai and let him get yards after the catch. True, the Colts struggle against the run, but the only way the Ravens win is if they put in another performance exactly like last week and it’s damn tough to play perfect two weeks in a row, especially against the Colts who have had their number over the years. Not out of the question, just very unlikely. Colts-27 Ravens-17 (you can check out my prediction also over at NFL.com).

Allen is going to have to be an absolute beast this weekend for the Vikings to come out of the Metrodome unscathed.

Third: Dallas at Minnesota. This is the game of the week. Two teams that are extremely stout on the line and both with very talented front sevens. It has been said multiple times this week, but it couldn’t be any more true: this game will be decided in the trenches and whoever rushes the passer or provides better protection for theirs, will win the game. Dallas is one of the best teams running between the tackles and the Vikings could be the best at stopping the run with their tackles, the Williams Wall. But the X-factor in this game will be the secondaries. With both front sevens playing lights out the running games will rendered moot and only used to keep the defenses honest. It will come down to who has more time in the pocket to pick apart secondaries that can be had for the big play. Considering that, the advantage goes to Dallas. Why? Because Minnesota’s best defensive back, Antoine Winfield, is not 100% and is unsure about how much he’ll be able to play and even when he is in there how effective he’ll actually be. That’ll allow Miles Austin to be on one of their lesser guys and he has proven to be able to produce even while facing team’s #1 guys. As long as Flozell Adams doesn’t implode, which is a distinct possibility, and he can keep Jared Allen at bay even a little bit, Tony Romo should have enough time to find his game-breaking receiver for the play that could decide the game. But I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention Adrian Peterson’s name, so here I will. Peterson is very, very good, but the Vikings have proven they are at their best when he is used sparingly and mainly as a decoy to let Brett Favre draw single coverage on his wideouts and pick apart defenses with his myriad weapons. Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe are all very capable of scoring on any play and pose serious threats to spread out defenses who have to account not only for them, but the threat of Peterson in the backfield as well. Without Peterson behind him this year, Favre wouldn’t have been nearly as good as he has been, but this was far from a defining year for him, even though he did lead the league in touchdowns. He hasn’t gone over 100 yards in the last seven games and his fumbling issues have killed the Vikings on occasion this year. But the Vikings win when they throw and I’m just not sure they are prepared for the pressure that DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are about to bring to their house. The Cowboys are hot and I don’t know if the Vikings can put out their fire. Cowboys-26 Vikings-21. 

Revis can cover V-Jax, but who can match up with their other forward, Floyd?

Fourth: New York Jets at San Diego. To me, this is the only game that I am absolutely certain of. All of the other games could go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won. But I would be completely shocked if the Jets went into San Diego and beat what could be the league’s best team. The only hope the Jets have is if they run for almost 300 yards against a porous San Diego run defense that has been hurting since they lost stud nose tackle Jamal Williams. But there is no way Mark Sanchez goes on the road two weeks in a row to win a playoff game. He’s simply not good enough to do that. And yes, the Jets have a great defense but the only way that they can get pressure on the quarterback is to manufacture it through blitzes because their front four is simply not all that great. That leaves opposing wideouts in one-on-one coverage most of the time, usually with very little safety help. Which has worked up to this point because Darrelle Revis is the best corner in the game and has brought the term ‘shutdown corner’ back into the lexicon. But one problem: Rivers has no problem throwing to any one of the plethora of 6’4” or taller targets on his roster. So while Vincent Jackson may be blanketed by Revis, who’s going to cover Antonio Gates? Malcom Floyd? Or even the underrated Legedu Naanee? And don’t give me Lito Shepphard because he has been extremely overrated this year based on Revis’ performance and the fact that Revis can let the safeties help Shepphard and leave him alone on the best receiver. That will be exposed quickly in this one. I expect Floyd to be the difference here as him and Gates will abuse the “other” guys on their defense and then open up some holes for the poor Chargers running game to at least get some tough yards on the ground, ones that have been much easier to come by against the Jets since they lost behemoth nose tackle Kris Jenkins. The problem the Jets are going to run into is they are actually going to have to throw the ball more often in this game than they did last week because Philip Rivers is very efficient and simply doesn’t have bad games so it will be up to Sanchez to keep up. Do you think he can? I certainly don’t and I actually think that Leonard Little has a better chance of becoming the president of MADD than Sanchez has of keeping up with Rivers in this game. No chance, blowout. Chargers-28 Jets-13.

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