Fourth and One: Déjà vu All Over Again?

What could be the most interesting aspect of this weekend’s games is the potential for these same games to happen all over again next weekend in the first round of the playoffs. By my estimation, there are four games tomorrow that could all result in redos the following week if all the pieces fell right. It would obviously be impossible for all four to occur, but the possibility exists in four contests and more than likely will occur at least once. Those four games are the Patriots-Texans, Eagles-Cowboys, Cardinals-Packers and Jets-Bengals. But the circumstances are different for each pairing so the philosophies for each team will also be different. With the Eagles-Cowboys matchup, both teams are fighting for playoff positioning so don’t expect either team to let up; the Patriots have already clinched but would like to lock up the #3 seed but it will be interesting to see how much they reveal to a Texans team that needs a miracle; it almost seems like a lock that the Packers and Cardinals will play again next week, so don’t expect either to reveal anything at all and for most of each team’s stars to spend most of their time on the bench; and the Jets desperately need to win so they’ll be throwing the kitchen sink at the Bengals, whose fate might already have been sealed after the Patriots game. Got that? Good, and if not, go here to see all the possible scenarios and what each team needs to happen to make the playoffs in the wild AFC wild card race.

The best thing about Yogi-isms is that they don't just apply to baseball.

First: Dallas at Philadelphia. The stakes could only be higher if they were in separate conferences and playing in Miami in February. This is a classic winner takes all matchup between two teams that really don’t like each other very much. Okay, they hate each other and you can expect quite a few brawls in the stands as this one unfurls. But if you have to break it down, the Eagles actually have a bit more on the line than the ‘Boys. With a win the Eagles would not only win the East, but they would secure a coveted bye as the #2 seed. Last year these two teams also closed out the season with both teams needing wins to secure playoff spots even though it didn’t seem like the Cowboys played with much urgency as they got smoked at the Linc. But for some reason I see this one playing out a bit differently this year. For one, the game is in Dallas. Two, the Cowboys seemed to have shed their December swooning ways and are actually playing really well as of late and Tony Romo has been listening to Sean Kingston and fire burning up opposing secondaries (and making Sean’s dis here completely wrong, even though it never really is wrong to trash talk the ‘Boys). I believe both of these teams have what it takes to make deep playoff runs and both are playing better than anyone else in the NFC right now (even though the Cardinals proved last year that has minimal meaning). But something that Matt Williamson of ESPN’s Scouts Inc. said has stuck with me for the last week because it’s been something that has been in my mind ever since Eli Manning shredded them in that Sunday night shootout. He said that he finds it hard to see how the Eagles can make a deep playoff run with all of their problems on defense and the lackadaisical effort they give when they have a lead. The Eagles offense is explosive, but their defense is very susceptible to getting eaten up by a good quarterback with time to throw and weapons at his disposal. The Cowboys fit that bill perfectly and may have just the formula to knock the Eagles right back into a rematch next week. So just like old Yogi said, it will be déjà vu all over again. Cowboys-29 Eagles-23.

Romo will look to finally end those Cowboy December woes once and for all. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Second: Pittsburgh at Miami. After the Steelers dropped three games out of four to some of the worst teams in the league, it looked like their playoff hopes were as dead as Carrot Top’s career. But amazingly, everyone else in the AFC wild card race also went through a swoon and left the door open a little bit (which reminded me of that whole when is a door not a door riddle, you know, when it’s ajar). With their hopes on life support, the Steelers barely escaped the Packers and the Ravens the last two weeks. But Ben Roethlisberger had one of the best performances of his career against the Packers, and actually one of the best passing days in NFL history, as he became one of the very few to throw for over 500 yards and three TDs and sans picks. Pretty impressive, especially against one of the league’s best defenses, so he is obviously hot right now. They will now have to hedge their bets against a Miami team who also has some dim playoff hopes and will be playing their hearts out in hopes of squeaking into the postseason. But with Ricky Williams a little dinged up and unsure if he’ll be able to suit up and Ronnie Brown having been on IR for the past few weeks, the run-heavy Dolphins will be turning to Lex Hilliard to carry the load and take the pressure off of the young, strong-armed Chad Henne. That might be a little too much to ask of Hilliard, who has very little experience and has yet to start a game in his career. If he does get the starting nod, the Steelers don’t present the ideal team to kick off your career. The Steelers on the other hand are a team that everyone in the AFC hopes loses this game so they don’t have to see them in the playoffs. The defending champs are surprisingly trying to crawl their way into the playoffs but are a talent-laden team and could present problems for each of the contenders from both conferences. They will also pose myriad problems for the Dolphins who simply don’t have enough talent to compete with the champs, who should be able to have their way through the air just like they did against the Pack. Big Ben’s arm will carry them over the Dolphins in the stadium they hope to be at in February, even with all the chips stacked against them. Steelers-27 Dolphins-14.

The only shot the Dolphins have is to do this to Big Ben. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Third: Cincinnati at New York Jets. If the Jets win they will end up playing each other again next week; that is guaranteed. But the question then becomes can the Jets win. They absolutely can, if Mark Sanchez stops looking like Ryan Leaf and turns into Matt Ryan all of a sudden or the Jets turn back the clock and let Thomas Jones carry them, which they should do anyway as he has been quite the stud for two years running now. But what also might help their cause is having the Patriots beat the Texans earlier in the afternoon because if that happens then the Bengals will have nothing to play for and then taking the Indianapolis approach. So this really comes down to whether or not I think the Patriots will beat the Texans because if they do, the Jets will dispatch the Bengals second team rather easily, but if not and the Bengals have something to play for, I don’t know if Sanchez has what it takes in a high pressure situation. But before I can judge this game, let’s take a look at the next one because it all comes down to that.

Fourth: New England at Houston. The one thing we know about Bill Belichick is that he is as ruthless as Ted Bundy at a sorority party. He’d run up the score against the delegates from the Special Olympics if he could. So the question of whether they will try to win this game even though they’ve clinched the division is ridiculous considering they could lock down the #3 seed with a win here. But the Texans should not be taken lightly. They have one of the best passing offenses in the league, based on Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson who have become one of the best quarterback-receiver tandems. This is something the Patriots should be especially concerned about because their secondary is definitely the weakest part of their defense, and probably their entire team. They have shuffled through corners like Tiger Woods through Waffle house waitresses and they have been abused often through the air. But the difference with the Texans is that they have no ground threat since Steve Slaton was placed on IR. And being one dimensional is a very dangerous thing to be against a Belichick coached defense. He’ll find ways to get to the quarterback and concoct schemes to limit the damage. But even with all that I believe this game is going to be an epic shootout. Tom Brady and Schaub can both sling it. Johnson and Randy Moss are two of the best receivers this decade. And then there’s Wes Welker, who will end up being the difference. In a shootout it comes down to who has the most weapons. Well the Texans begins and ends with Johnson, while the Patriots can run out Moss and then hit you with Welker underneath. Without Owen Daniels, the Texans are a one man passing show, while the Patriots may have the best one-two punch in the league, which will propel them to victory and the #3 seed in the playoffs, while at the same time setting up a Jets-Bengals rematch next week as well. Patriots-42 Texans-31; Jets-24 Bengals-17.

Sometimes I wonder if the hooded one even has a conscience. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

And One: Jacksonville over Cleveland. I know this game is only a one-point spread and it is one of those lines that is telling mew something. What it tells me is that the Browns should win because the Jaguars actually have something to play for and the Browns are not very good yet they are the favorites. It makes absolutely no sense to me which means the oddsmakers know something I don’t and the guys in Vegas aren’t idiots. But I simply cannot buy into it. The Browns have one good position player on their entire roster right now and I don’t see Josh Cribbs doing enough to overcome the Browns deficiencies in every other area of the game. They are not good against the run and Maurice Jones-Drew should do his best Jeffrey Dahmer and eat them alive. As a matter of fact, I’m not even sure this game will be close, but then again I wouldn’t be surprised if the fellas in Vegas were right. But Jacksonville will play with a hope and a prayer and they are indeed the better team. Jaguars-32 Browns-13.