Tebow or Not Tebow?

I have been wanting to write this column ever since Tim Tebow blew the doors off of the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Sugar Bowl, throwing for a career high 482 yards and three touchdowns and completing a mind-numbing 31 of his 35 attempts. Everyone that watched Tebow throughout his college career was pretty shocked by this extremely efficient performance and outlandish yardage total because, quite honestly, it was out of character for him. His previous career high was 338 yards against the premium competition of the Florida Atlantic Owls. But this was Cincinnati, a team that was previously undefeated (but without their coach, Brian Kelly, who bailed for Notre Dame a few weeks before), in a BCS bowl game. The most yards he ever threw for against actually legitimate competition before the Sugar Bowl was 319 yards last year versus Ole Miss. So why the sudden revelation from one of the greatest players in college football history in his last game?

I think it is quite obvious that the Sugar Bowl performance was skillfully orchestrated by Urban Meyer to feature his decorated star and answer all of the critics who have questioned his pro prospects, regardless of his collegiate accolades and accomplishments. But that is all it was, a staged showcase, and as far as I’m concerned it was a complete fluke.

Need proof? How about today’s performance in the Senior Bowl where he competed against other four-year players and fellow members of the upcoming draft class. Not only did he struggle all week in the practices which are highly scouted by NFL teams, but he went out and completely crapped the bed in front of his potential future employers. His 8/12 for 50 yards performance was nothing to be ashamed of, but the two fumbles he lost were and he was also ineffective as a runner, which was one of his key strengths at Florida. But the biggest issue with him was probably how uncomfortable he looked in a pro-style offense. This is something that I have been preaching for a while now and a few weeks back my boy sent me a text asking me whether I thought Tebow would be a good NFL quarterback and we ended up going back and forth for about an hour. Why the long exchange? Well for one, nobody has been as polarizing a figure as Tebow so the back-and-forth about him can go on forever, but mainly because he thinks Tebow can be a stud in the NFL while I think the complete opposite is true. After watching him throughout his career as a Gator and reading more than my fair share about him, here is why his prospects as an NFL quarterback are bleak:

Exepect more of this in the NFL if he doesn't change his approach.

Mechanics. I’m not going to front and act like I came up with this all on my own, even though you would have to be an idiot to not have noticed that the way he throws the ball is a little funky and f’d up. He has what scouts call an “elongated delivery” and if he keeps throwing the ball that way he’ll have absolutely no chance to succeed at the next level. When he throws he drops the ball down to his waist and then back up before he releases. In the NFL you’re lucky to get three seconds to throw the ball and his delivery just to throw the ball takes almost that long and that’s without having to look for open receivers or identify defenders. I know many scouts and coaches don’t like to change the delivery of guys who have been throwing like that for entire lives, but with Tebow it’s going to be an absolute necessity and I’m not sure exactly how he’ll respond to that.
 
Accuracy. Forget the gaudy numbers from the Sugar Bowl and his impressive completion percentage numbers during his collegiate career. Tebow is not an accurate passer. His percentage was high during his time at Florida because their style of offense didn’t require him to throw the ball downfield all that much and when he had to he wasn’t very good doing it. Florida is always chock full of the best athletes in the country so all he was required to do was throw short passes and watch his supreme athlete teammates make spectacular plays after the catch. I mean, even Brett Favre did the same thing with Percy Harvin this year. Louis Murphy, Harvin, Chris Rainey, these are all guys who helped Tebow look a lot better than he actually is throwing the football and helped inflate his stats. During practice this week for the Senior Bowl he was constantly either overthrowing his receivers or skipping balls in front of them, a la Donovan McNabb. The only difference is McNabb can throw the long ball with the best of them. And the problem with accuracy issues is that accuracy is something that really can’t be taught.

Dual-threat? I think not. Tebow was a huge asset in college mainly because of the threat he posed with the ball in his hands. You never knew if he was going to throw it or run it out of that spread Florida offense. Well guess what Timmy boy, it won’t be that easy at the next level. The NFL has turned into a passing league and if you can’t throw out of the pocket than you’re in trouble and Tebow simply can’t do that right now. He likes to run the ball but his style simply won’t work as a pro. Yes, Michael Vick was the ultimate dual-threat like Tebow was in college but there is a gargantuan difference between the two: speed. Vick possesses blazing speed and could run right by you. Tebow, on the other hand, seems plodding compared to Vick. His running style is also in stark contrast to Vick. Vick outruns you, Tebow runs over you. Well in the NFL that won’t happen. Can you see Tebow running over guys like Kevin Williams and Jay Ratliff? Ends in college are often linebackers in the pros and linebackers in college often become safeties at the next level. Defenders are bigger, faster and more complete players than what he is used to facing and if he tries his tactics as often as he did in college he won’t make it out of his rookie year to even try to have a long professional career. I know that a coach could try and fix his style, but it is instinctive with him and you simply can’t change that. Look at Mark Sanchex this year. His instincts are to slide head first and the Jets even brought in Yankees manager Joe Girardi to try and teach him how to slide but to no avail; Sanchez still slides head first. Tebow’s style only spells trouble aat the next level and eliminates what made him such a weapon at Florida.

Tebow is way too loose with his throws and his mechanics are terrible.

Alex Smith anyone? Okay, well maybe his hands aren’t as small as the former number one overall pick’s, but the shotgun spread formation quarterbacks both had no experience taking snaps from under center coming out of college and we have seen how that has worked out for Smith up to this point. This is however, the least concern for teams when evaluating him. You can teach a quarterback how to take a snap from under enter and the 3- and 5- and 7-step drop process, but it sure does suck when you have to teach a guy how to do it at 22 years old. This week Tebow fumbled multiple snaps and was extremely awkward dropping back and trying to read defenses. That does not bode well for the future.

I have always been of the mind state that if guys have proved they can play then they probably can. Tebow very well might be able to play at the next level but it just might not be as a quarterback and if it is, it definitely won’t be for a winning team. I believed that Eric Crouch deserved a chance to prove he could do it but no team was willing to offer him that. I am of the same belief that Teboe deserves a shot simply based on his collge performance. But because he gets a chance doesn’t mean he’ll succeed and I think that he won’t, at least not as a quarterback. But there will be a team out there that probably overdrafts him because of his marketability (which by the way one company said he is the most marketable player the ever come out of college), his ability to fill seats, his fiery competitiveness and his proven leadership abilities. But whatever team decides to take on the Tebow experiment, just hope that it isn’t yours.