Don’t Sleep on the Special Teams

Just like I said I would, I’m back with a look at the last two things that could have an impact on today’s game: the special teams and coaches. Though often pushed to the backburner, the special teams could end up playing a huge role in this game and you can’t discount the role that the coaches will play in this game. I’ve said it before when I ranked the best coaches in the game, but bad coaches don’t win championships and neither of these coaches are bad, but one definitely has the upper hand when it comes to putting a game plan together and keeping the opposing defense on their heels. But let’s get to it quick as I am running out of time before kickoff (that’s what happens when your college roommate comes to visit for the weekend and you end up boozing like you used to and everything else gets forgotten but since I didn’t want to leave my readers thirsting for information I decided to lock myself in a room and throw some words down for those who recognize the value I bring to their lives).

Bush may indeed be the x-factor in this game as one big return could sway the tide in New Orleans favor. (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images North America)

Special Teams. To be brutally honest, if this game comes down to who makes a play on special teams the Colts are in serious trouble. The only place they have an advantage is kicker because I’d feel much safer with Matt Stover kicking a field goal with the game on the line than I would with Garrett Hartley but then again he did kick them into the Super Bowl two weeks against the Vikings. But the Colts special teams aren’t all that special and I have written about it ad nauseum over the course of the season over on NFL.com. Their coverage units are okay, but they’re return units leave a lot to be desired and Pat McAfee is just a serviceable punter. The Saints are the exact opposite. Courtney Roby has the ability to give the Saints excellent field position on kick offs and Reggie Bush may very well be the most dangerous punt returner in the game ever since Devin Hester has focused mainly on his receiving duties (calm down Eagles fans, DeSean Jackson is right up there with Bush). McAfee will have to try and avoid Bush at all costs because I don’t know if the Colts can afford a huge return by Bush in this game. That is something that the Saints rookie punter Thomas Morestead won’t have to worry about and even if he did I’d rather have him punting in this game than the Colts rookie. I don’t know if I can reiterate it enough, the Colts better make sure they handle their business on offense because they don’t have the special teams firepower to overcome the Saints. Edge: Saints.

Coaching. Both coaches in this game deserve to be here but there is one glaring difference between them. Sean Payton built up this Saints team into a winner and he is one of the brightest offensive minds in the game while Jim Caldwell was basically given the keys to a contender from legendary coach Tony Dungy. Payton has a knack for calling the right offensive plays to keep defenses guessing and it will be a tough task for the Colts defense to stay ahead of him and keep Drew Brees in check. Caldwell on the other hand doesn’t stray too far from the status quo and never does anything really ballsy, instead letting his horse Peyton Manning run the show. In a way Manning is the offensive coordinator of the Colts so he does allow Caldwell to relax when he’s out there and concentrate on the next defensive series. But Payton has done way more to get his team to this point than Caldwell has and Caldwell hasn’t done enough yet to prove to me that he is the superior of the two. Edge: Saints.

On the biggest of stages, this is the guy I want leading my team out of the tunnel.

So that brings me to how I think this whole thing is going to go down. Over on NFL.com I gave a prediction and concentrated on the defensive aspect because I think it will be huge in this game, but since I’ve already touched on that I figured I’d go in a different direction here and concentrate on the biggest factor in the game and that’s Manning.

Manning has an uncanny ability to figure out a defense after seeing them for only a few plays. Take the game two weeks ago for example. The Jets decided to go with an extra defensive back right out the gate and make the Colts beat them by running the football since that is definitely the weakest aspect of their offense. Well for the first quarter and a half the Colts struggled to break goal line and the Jets were humming along. That is until Manning decided to forego the run and pick on the holes that he had discovered along the way in their secondary. Their last drive before the half he shredded their secondary by throwing three precision passes to rookie Austin Collie and the Colts were suddenly unstoppable from that point on. The bad news for the Saints is that he did that against the league’s #1 pass defense and they aren’t even close to as stingy as the Jets were.

Coordinator Gregg Williams is going to try and pull every trick he has ever thought of out in this game and try to get a few “remember me” shots on Manning like they did to Brett Favre. The only think with Manning is that he refuses to take those shots and drops like a sack of potatoes when he knows he has no shot to get the ball off. Some call it being soft and weak, I call it extremely smart. It’s why he could probably play quarterback until he’s 50 because he doesn’t take the beating most NFL quarterbacks endure. Without the shots to get in his head Williams efforts will be futile against the most prolific passer in the game today. The Saints will try to show him different looks to confuse him but trying to confuse Manning is as fruitless a task as convincing Andy Reid to run the ball and in the end they will eventually outsmart themselves. I could see the Saints winning this game and it wouldn’t shock me if they did, but I just think Manning is way too good and as he sits on the doorstep of all-time greatness and knowing what this championship would mean to him and his legacy I can’t imagine him letting it slip away.

Colts 34 Saints 31.